Predictors of College Undermatching: An Analysis of Delaware High School Graduates

• Cassidy Craft, Mathematics and Economics, University of Delaware

• Jeff Klein, Center for Research in Education and Social Policy, University of Delaware

College undermatching occurs when a student attends an institution of higher education (IHE) for which they are considered overqualified, based on their academic attainment relative to the school’s selectivity and quality. Utilizing data obtained from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), Delaware K12 student records, the Delaware Department of Education from IHEs, IPEDS (2022-2023), and the Department of Education’s College Scorecard, this study looks to quantify how certain factors, such as low-income status, limited English proficiency, and receiving special education, predict the probability of enrollment below a student’s academic potential. Severity of undermatch was calculated as the difference between the student’s SAT percentile rank and the quality percentile rank of the first institution they attended, as determined by total graduation rate, admissions rate, and yield. Further, a binary threshold was created for students enrolled at an institution 15 percentile points below their data-driven academic potential. Linear probability and Ordinary Least Squares models demonstrate that low-income status independently increases the probability and severity of undermatching (p < 0.001), along with male gender identity. Conversely, receiving special education and being of a historically underrepresented race decreases the chance of undermatching, likely due to the increase in initiatives prioritizing campus diversity and the rise in accessibility efforts for students with disabilities. Limited English proficiency demonstrated no statistically significant independent effect after controlling for socioeconomic and academic factors. These results highlight the need for counseling and financial support to mitigate income-based barriers to enrollment.