Racial Threat and Social Control: A Meta-Analysis of Macro-Level Findings

• Dennis Iancic, Criminal Justice, University of Delaware

• Karen Parker, Criminal Justice, University of Delaware

Racial threat theory posits that as the relative size of a minority population grows, dominant groups perceive heightened social, economic, or political competition, prompting increased reliance on formal mechanisms of social control. Over the past several decades, a substantial body of empirical research has tested this proposition using macro-level data, yet findings across studies remain inconsistent, varying by outcome measure, geographic unit of analysis, and operationalization of threat. This inconsistency complicates efforts to draw generalizable conclusions about the relationship between racial composition and social control outcomes such as policing, incarceration, and other punitive measures. The present study conducts a systematic meta-analysis of existing literature on racial threat and social control in the United States, synthesizing findings across studies to assess the direction, magnitude, and consistency of reported effects. Drawing on a structured review protocol, studies are evaluated against defined inclusion criteria and coded using a standardized extraction template capturing methodological characteristics, unit of analysis, control variables, and effect sizes where available. This approach allows for systematic comparison across studies that have historically employed disparate designs and measures, addressing a persistent gap in the literature: the absence of a comprehensive, quantitative synthesis of racial threat research at the macro level. By aggregating and comparing outcomes across studies, this project aims to clarify where empirical consensus exists, identify sources of divergence, and highlight methodological factors that may account for inconsistent results. Findings are expected to inform future research design in this area and contribute to a more precise theoretical and empirical understanding of how racial composition relates to formal social control in the United States. This work is conducted under the guidance of Professor Karen Parker and PhD student Billy John Dalton, in collaboration with fellow research assistant Emma Kirchner.